2024 Hurricane Season Outlook: An ERM Perspective

Friday, June 14, 2024

The One Minute Risk Manager/ERM/2024 Hurricane Season Outlook: An ERM Perspective
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As we approach the 2024 hurricane season, businesses must brace for what experts predict to be a "hyperactive" period. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-normal hurricane season, with expectations of 14 to 21 named storms, including 6 to 11 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher​ (Risk Management Magazine)​. From an Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) standpoint, it's crucial to proactively address these risks to ensure business continuity and minimize potential losses.

Understanding the Predictions
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts an above-normal hurricane season for 2024. This outlook includes the possibility of several major hurricanes, which can lead to widespread damage and disruptions. Businesses located in hurricane-prone areas or those with operations dependent on these regions must take these predictions seriously and integrate them into their risk management strategies.

ERM Strategies for Hurricane Preparedness

Risk Assessment and Scenario Planning:

Conduct thorough risk assessments to identify vulnerabilities in your operations. Utilize historical data and predictive models to understand the potential impact of hurricanes on your business.

Develop scenario planning exercises to simulate various hurricane impacts and test the resilience of your business continuity plans. This will help identify gaps and areas for improvement.

Disaster Recovery and Business Continuity Plans:

Ensure your disaster recovery plans are up-to-date and comprehensive. This includes having backup systems in place for critical data and operations.

Establish clear communication protocols to keep employees, customers, and stakeholders informed during and after a hurricane.

Supply Chain Resilience:

Strengthen your supply chain by diversifying suppliers and establishing alternative routes and methods for critical supplies.

Collaborate with suppliers and partners to ensure they also have robust risk management plans in place.

The Role of Parametric Insurance and Catastrophe Equity Puts

The increasing frequency and severity of hurricanes highlight the importance of innovative financial instruments such as parametric insurance and catastrophe equity puts (CatEPuts) in risk management.

Parametric Insurance:

Unlike traditional insurance, which pays out based on the assessed damage, parametric insurance provides payouts based on predefined parameters, such as the intensity of the storm or the amount of rainfall.

This type of insurance can offer quicker payouts, allowing businesses to respond more rapidly to hurricane impacts and resume operations sooner. As the number of storms increases, having parametric insurance can significantly enhance financial resilience.

Catastrophe Equity Puts (CatEPuts):

CatEPuts are financial instruments that provide businesses with capital following a catastrophic event in exchange for equity. They are particularly useful for maintaining liquidity and stability during recovery periods.
With the predicted hyperactive hurricane season, CatEPuts can be a valuable tool for businesses to ensure they have the necessary funds to rebuild and continue operations without severe financial strain.

The 2024 hurricane season underscores the need for robust ERM practices. By proactively assessing risks, updating disaster recovery plans, and leveraging financial instruments like parametric insurance and CatEPuts, businesses can better navigate the challenges posed by an active hurricane season. Implementing these strategies will not only protect physical assets but also ensure the long-term resilience and continuity of operations.

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